FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Fodé

Doucouré

RBMali · Le Havre AC

№ 798925Established €2.6M −0.28

Player dossierLigue 1

FodéDoucouré

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Le Havre AC
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
Mali
Age
25
Height
172 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Doucouré at €2M. Model A, which never saw Doucouré during training, estimates €2.6M: the market value is 24% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.32. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.7M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.28A €2.6M▲ +0.19B €1.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
26
Minutes
1,242
Goals
3
Assists
1
Started
15/26
Min / app
48
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Doucouré…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2MModel A €2.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Fodé Doucouré's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 99th, Assists per 90 68th, Minutes, two years 17th, Starts 13th, Minutes, last 365 days 36th, European club minutes 30th99thGoals68thAssists17thMinutes13thStarts36thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.22 this player0.03 defender median99th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€400k
Jan 2021
Peak
€2M
Oct 2025
Model target
€2M
Jun 2026
Valuations
15
3 club changes
Jun 2026€2MLe Havre ACValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €2M, Le Havre AC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-01-07€400kStade Reims B
2021-06-04€500kStade Reims B
2021-12-16€700kStade Reims
2022-06-21€600kRed Star FC
2022-12-20€500kRed Star FC
2023-06-14€500kRed Star FC
2023-12-08€400kRed Star FC
2024-06-14€350kRed Star FC
2024-10-03€400kRed Star FC
2024-12-04€400kRed Star FC
2025-03-12€500kRed Star FC
2025-06-02€700kRed Star FC
2025-10-10€2MLe Havre AC
2025-12-15€2MLe Havre AC
2026-06-01€2MLe Havre AC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.276

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 20% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 49% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Doucouré appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).