FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Stênio

RWBrazil · Karpaty Lviv

№ 796574Emerging €305k +0.68

Player dossierPremier Liha

Stênio

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Karpaty Lviv
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Brazil
Age
23
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Stênio at €600k. Model A, which never saw Stênio during training, estimates €305k: the market value is 96% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.96. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €538k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.68A €305k▲ +0.11B €538k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
22
Minutes
908
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
8/22
Min / app
41
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Stênio…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €600k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €600kModel A €305k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Stênio's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 3rd, Assists per 90 31st, Minutes, two years 16th, Starts 16th, Minutes, last 365 days 6th, European club minutes 28th3rdGoals31stAssists16thMinutes16thStarts6thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.10 this player0.15 attacker median31st percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€1M
Aug 2021
Peak
€1M
Aug 2021
Model target
€600k
Jun 2026
Valuations
12
6 club changes
Jun 2026€600kKarpaty LvivValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €600k, Karpaty Lviv. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-08-12€1MCruzeiro Esporte Clube
2022-06-23€600kTorino Primavera
2022-08-05€600kCruzeiro Esporte Clube
2022-12-28€1MCruzeiro Esporte Clube
2023-04-07€1MCruzeiro Esporte Clube
2023-07-25€1MCruzeiro Esporte Clube
2023-12-11€1MCruzeiro Esporte Clube
2024-06-20€900kAvs Futebol
2024-12-17€700kKarpaty Lviv
2025-06-27€800kAmérica Futebol Clube (MG)
2025-11-24€800kAmérica Futebol Clube (MG)
2026-06-02€600kKarpaty Lviv

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.675

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 61% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 19% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Stênio appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).