FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Tymur

Korablin

CMUkraine · Vorskla Poltava

№ 795280Emerging €260k +0.14

Player dossierPremier Liha

TymurKorablin

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Vorskla Poltava
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Ukraine
Age
23
Height
174 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
18 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Korablin at €300k. Model A, which never saw Korablin during training, estimates €260k: the market value is 16% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.16. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.14A €260k▼ −1.48B €1.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
27
Minutes
1,377
Goals
4
Assists
2
Started
15/27
Min / app
51
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Korablin…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €300k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €300kModel A €260k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Tymur Korablin's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 90th, Assists per 90 64th, Minutes, two years 22nd, Starts 28th, Minutes, last 365 days 4th, European club minutes 30th90thGoals64thAssists22ndMinutes28thStarts4thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.26 this player0.08 midfielder median90th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Aug 2022
Peak
€400k
Jun 2024
Model target
€300k
Dec 2025
Valuations
8
3 club changes
Dec 2025€300kVorskla PoltavaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €300k, Vorskla Poltava. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-08-01€50kKryvbas Kryvyi Rig
2022-12-06€150kKryvbas Kryvyi Rig
2023-06-21€150kKryvbas Kryvyi Rig
2023-12-11€200kFC Minaj
2024-06-06€400kFC Minaj
2024-12-17€300kZorya Lugansk
2025-06-10€300kZorya Lugansk
2025-12-18€300kVorskla Poltava

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.145

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 27% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 7% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Korablin appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).