FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Joseph

Nonge

CMBelgium · Kocaelispor

№ 748807Established €771k +0.95

Player dossierSüper Lig

JosephNonge

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Kocaelispor
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Belgium
Age
21
Height
184 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Nonge at €2M. Model A, which never saw Nonge during training, estimates €771k: the market value is 159% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.59. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.95A €771k▲ +0.53B €1.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
25
Minutes
1,193
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
14/25
Min / app
48
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Nonge…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2MModel A €771k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Joseph Nonge's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 18th, Starts 29th, Minutes, last 365 days 38th, European club minutes 30th10thGoals8thAssists18thMinutes29thStarts38thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

1,193 this player1,541 midfielder median38th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,800

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Jul 2023
Peak
€3M
Mar 2024
Model target
€2M
May 2026
Valuations
9
3 club changes
May 2026€2MKocaelisporValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €2M, Kocaelispor. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-07-01€150kJuventus Next Gen
2023-12-21€700kJuventus Next Gen
2024-03-12€3MJuventus Next Gen
2024-06-18€3MJuventus Next Gen
2024-12-04€2.5MESTAC Troyes
2025-06-10€2MServette FC
2025-12-17€1.8MKocaelispor
2026-03-05€1.5MKocaelispor
2026-05-21€2MKocaelispor

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.953

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 61% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 46% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Nonge appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).