FairValue

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Portrait of Nemanja Matić

Nemanja

Matić

DMSerbia · US Sassuolo

№ 74683Emerging €1.2M +0.30

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

NemanjaMatić

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
US Sassuolo
League
Serie A
Nationality
Serbia
Age
37
Height
194 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Matić at €1.6M. Model A, which never saw Matić during training, estimates €1.2M: the market value is 36% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.36. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €782k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.30A €1.2M▲ +0.72B €782k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
71
Minutes
5,123
Goals
1
Assists
2
Started
61/71
Min / app
72
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Matić…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.6M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.6MModel A €1.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Nemanja Matić's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 21st, Assists per 90 22nd, Minutes, two years 88th, Starts 80th, Minutes, last 365 days 84th, European club minutes 70th21stGoals22ndAssists88thMinutes80thStarts84thRecent70thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

5,123 this player2,607 midfielder median88th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,624

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€350k
Oct 2008
Peak
€40M
Jul 2015
Model target
€1.6M
May 2026
Valuations
39
9 club changes
May 2026€1.6MUS SassuoloValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.6M, US Sassuolo. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2008-10-21€350kMFK Kosice
2009-02-22€1.5MMFK Kosice
2010-01-25€2MChelsea FC
2011-01-17€2.3MVitesse Arnhem
2011-06-28€3MVitesse Arnhem
2012-02-02€4MSL Benfica
2012-07-07€6MSL Benfica
2013-03-27€14MSL Benfica
2013-07-02€22MSL Benfica
2013-10-08€27MSL Benfica
2014-02-05€25MChelsea FC
2014-08-12€26MChelsea FC
2015-02-12€34MChelsea FC
2015-07-01€40MChelsea FC
2016-02-09€38MChelsea FC
2016-08-01€32MChelsea FC
2017-02-20€35MChelsea FC
2017-06-28€35MChelsea FC
2018-01-02€40MManchester United
2018-05-28€40MManchester United
2018-12-19€35MManchester United
2019-06-13€30MManchester United
2019-09-12€25MManchester United
2019-12-10€20MManchester United
2020-04-08€16MManchester United
2020-10-13€16MManchester United
2020-12-17€12MManchester United
2021-03-18€10MManchester United
2021-06-08€8MManchester United
2021-12-23€6MManchester United
2022-06-15€5MManchester United
2022-11-11€4MAS Roma
2023-06-15€4MAS Roma
2023-12-18€3.5MStade Rennais FC
2024-06-03€3MOlympique Lyon
2024-12-10€2.5MOlympique Lyon
2025-06-03€2MOlympique Lyon
2025-12-23€1.8MUS Sassuolo
2026-05-29€1.6MUS Sassuolo

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.304

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 18% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€1.6MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 43% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.6MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Matić appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).