FairValue

Checking model

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Noah

Mbamba

CMBelgium · FCV Dender EH

№ 743395Established €1.6M +0.21

Player dossierPro League

NoahMbamba

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
FCV Dender EH
League
Pro League
Nationality
Belgium
Age
21
Height
196 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Mbamba at €2M. Model A, which never saw Mbamba during training, estimates €1.6M: the market value is 23% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.23. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.3M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.21A €1.6M▼ −0.14B €2.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
40
Minutes
2,917
Goals
2
Assists
2
Started
35/40
Min / app
73
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Mbamba…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2MModel A €1.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Noah Mbamba's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 39th, Assists per 90 34th, Minutes, two years 56th, Starts 83rd, Minutes, last 365 days 85th, European club minutes 30th39thGoals34thAssists56thMinutes83rdStarts85thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,702 this player1,541 midfielder median85th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,800

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€500k
Feb 2021
Peak
€5M
Jan 2022
Model target
€2M
Jun 2026
Valuations
15
4 club changes
Jun 2026€2MFCV Dender EHValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €2M, FCV Dender EH. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-02-23€500kClub NXT
2021-06-07€800kClub Brugge KV
2021-10-06€3MClub Brugge KV
2022-01-06€5MClub Brugge KV
2022-04-12€5MClub Brugge KV
2022-05-26€4MClub Brugge KV
2022-11-04€3MClub Brugge KV
2023-06-22€3MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2023-12-14€3MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2024-05-29€2.5MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2024-12-19€2MFortuna Düsseldorf
2025-03-26€1.5MFCV Dender EH
2025-06-12€1.5MFCV Dender EH
2025-12-10€1.5MFCV Dender EH
2026-06-04€2MFCV Dender EH

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.209

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 50% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 46% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Mbamba appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).