FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Ruben van

Bommel

LWNetherlands · PSV Eindhoven

№ 735701Elite €4.1M +0.90

Player dossierEredivisie

Ruben vanBommel

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
PSV Eindhoven
League
Eredivisie
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
21
Height
192 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Bommel at €10M. Model A, which never saw Bommel during training, estimates €4.1M: the market value is 145% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.45. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €5.8M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.90A €4.1M▲ +0.54B €5.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
39
Minutes
2,417
Goals
11
Assists
5
Started
30/39
Min / app
62
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bommel…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €4.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Ruben van Bommel's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 78th, Assists per 90 65th, Minutes, two years 54th, Starts 79th, Minutes, last 365 days 14th, European club minutes 79th78thGoals65thAssists54thMinutes79thStarts14thRecent79thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

77% this player59% attacker median79th percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Jun 2022
Peak
€12M
Oct 2025
Model target
€10M
May 2026
Valuations
13
3 club changes
May 2026€10MPSV EindhovenValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €10M, PSV Eindhoven. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-06-23€25kMVV Maastricht U18
2022-10-12€125kMVV Maastricht
2023-04-03€550kMVV Maastricht
2023-07-04€900kAZ Alkmaar
2023-10-17€2MAZ Alkmaar
2023-12-15€3MAZ Alkmaar
2024-05-31€5MAZ Alkmaar
2024-10-14€8MAZ Alkmaar
2024-12-17€8MAZ Alkmaar
2025-05-28€8MAZ Alkmaar
2025-10-02€12MPSV Eindhoven
2025-12-02€12MPSV Eindhoven
2026-05-28€10MPSV Eindhoven

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.897

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Eredivisie425 players · median €1M

Valued above 91% of the 425 Eredivisie players.

€75k€500k€3M€20M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 77% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Bommel appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).