FairValue

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Jakub

Moder

CMPoland · Feyenoord Rotterdam

№ 384461Elite €3.2M +1.13

Player dossierEredivisie

JakubModer

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Feyenoord Rotterdam
League
Eredivisie
Nationality
Poland
Age
27
Height
191 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Moder at €10M. Model A, which never saw Moder during training, estimates €3.2M: the market value is 209% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×3.09. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +1.13A €3.2M▲ +1.28B €2.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
35
Minutes
2,474
Goals
5
Assists
3
Started
28/35
Min / app
71
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Moder…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €3.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Jakub Moder's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 79th, Assists per 90 56th, Minutes, two years 47th, Starts 70th, Minutes, last 365 days 25th, European club minutes 78th79thGoals56thAssists47thMinutes70thStarts25thRecent78thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.18 this player0.08 midfielder median79th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€75k
Jul 2017
Peak
€12M
Mar 2022
Model target
€10M
May 2026
Valuations
22
4 club changes
May 2026€10MFeyenoord RotterdamValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €10M, Feyenoord Rotterdam. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-07-05€75kLech Poznan
2018-01-16€75kLech Poznan
2018-07-03€75kOdra Opole
2019-02-21€125kOdra Opole
2019-06-29€650kOdra Opole
2020-01-15€550kLech Poznan
2020-04-08€500kLech Poznan
2020-08-18€3MLech Poznan
2021-01-19€10MBrighton & Hove Albion
2021-03-18€10MBrighton & Hove Albion
2021-05-31€10MBrighton & Hove Albion
2021-12-23€10MBrighton & Hove Albion
2022-03-29€12MBrighton & Hove Albion
2022-06-15€12MBrighton & Hove Albion
2022-11-03€12MBrighton & Hove Albion
2023-06-20€10MBrighton & Hove Albion
2023-12-19€10MBrighton & Hove Albion
2024-05-27€10MBrighton & Hove Albion
2024-12-16€10MBrighton & Hove Albion
2025-05-28€12MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2025-12-02€10MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2026-05-28€10MFeyenoord Rotterdam

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+1.129

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Eredivisie425 players · median €1M

Valued above 91% of the 425 Eredivisie players.

€75k€500k€3M€20M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 78% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Moder appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).