FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Danilo

Veiga

RBPortugal · US Lecce

№ 728485Established €5.6M −0.80

Player dossierSerie A

DaniloVeiga

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
US Lecce
League
Serie A
Nationality
Portugal
Age
23
Height
183 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Veiga at €2.5M. Model A, which never saw Veiga during training, estimates €5.6M: the market value is 55% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.23. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €7.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.80A €5.6M▼ −1.08B €7.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
66
Minutes
4,793
Goals
0
Assists
3
Started
50/66
Min / app
73
Cards
14Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Veiga…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2.5MModel A €5.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Danilo Veiga's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 61st, Minutes, two years 80th, Starts 37th, Minutes, last 365 days 91st, European club minutes 30th18thGoals61stAssists80thMinutes37thStarts91stRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,145 this player1,687 defender median91st percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Sept 2022
Peak
€2.5M
May 2026
Model target
€2.5M
May 2026
Valuations
9
3 club changes
May 2026€2.5MUS LecceValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €2.5M, US Lecce. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-09-16€300kGil Vicente FC
2022-11-01€1.5MGil Vicente FC
2023-06-06€2MHNK Rijeka
2023-12-18€1.3MHNK Rijeka
2024-06-04€800kHNK Rijeka
2024-12-19€1MCF Estrela Amadora
2025-06-17€1MUS Lecce
2025-12-23€2MUS Lecce
2026-05-29€2.5MUS Lecce

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.804

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 24% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 54% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Veiga appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).