Cristian
Devenish
CBColombia · Avs Futebol
Player dossierLiga Portugal
CristianDevenish
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- Avs Futebol
- League
- Liga Portugal
- Nationality
- Colombia
- Age
- 25
- Height
- 192 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
Liga PortugalReading the valuation
The market values Devenish at €800k. Model A, which never saw Devenish during training, estimates €1.4M: the market value is 45% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.80. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 58
- Minutes
- 4,914
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 1
- Started
- 58/58
- Min / app
- 85
- Cards
- 10Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Devenish…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €800k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
100% this player83% defender median97th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €200k
- Oct 2020
- Peak
- €1M
- May 2021
- Model target
- €800k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 14
- 3 club changes
May 2026: €800k, Avs Futebol. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-10-22 | €200k | Boavista FC |
| 2021-01-28 | €500k | Boavista FC |
| 2021-05-21 | €1M | Boavista FC |
| 2022-01-13 | €700k | Atlético Nacional |
| 2022-06-17 | €650k | Atlético Nacional |
| 2022-09-05 | €750k | Atlético Nacional |
| 2022-12-12 | €850k | Atlético Nacional |
| 2023-07-07 | €850k | Atlético Nacional |
| 2023-12-07 | €750k | Atlético Nacional |
| 2024-06-06 | €700k | Rio Ave FC |
| 2024-12-19 | €800k | Avs Futebol |
| 2025-05-30 | €800k | Avs Futebol |
| 2025-12-18 | €800k | Avs Futebol |
| 2026-05-28 | €800k | Avs Futebol |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.589
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M
Valued above 35% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 29% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Devenish appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- RamosGKFC Porto · Liga Portugal€800k
- KuipersLBFC Arouca · Liga Portugal€800k
- XekaCMGD Estoril Praia · Liga Portugal€800k
- VirgíniaGKSporting CP · Liga Portugal€800k
- CaraccioloCBPisa Sporting Club · defenders€800k
- BianchettiCBUS Cremonese · defenders€800k
- WidmerRB1.FSV Mainz 05 · defenders€800k
- WinckRBKasimpasa · defenders€800k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).