FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Thibo

Somers

RMBelgium · Royal Antwerp FC

№ 719456Established €2.7M +0.09

Player dossierPro League

ThiboSomers

RMRight MidfieldMidfield

Club
Royal Antwerp FC
League
Pro League
Nationality
Belgium
Age
27
Height
183 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Somers at €3M. Model A, which never saw Somers during training, estimates €2.7M: the market value is 10% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.10. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €5.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.09A €2.7M▼ −0.59B €5.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
67
Minutes
5,415
Goals
9
Assists
6
Started
64/67
Min / app
81
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Somers…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €2.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Thibo Somers's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 72nd, Assists per 90 52nd, Minutes, two years 90th, Starts 94th, Minutes, last 365 days 77th, European club minutes 68th72ndGoals52ndAssists90thMinutes94thStarts77thRecent68thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

96% this player69% midfielder median94th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€350k
Dec 2019
Peak
€3M
Jun 2024
Model target
€3M
Jun 2026
Valuations
15
1 club change
Jun 2026€3MRoyal Antwerp FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €3M, Royal Antwerp FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-12-13€350kCercle Brugge
2020-04-08€325kCercle Brugge
2020-10-16€400kCercle Brugge
2021-06-07€400kCercle Brugge
2022-01-06€800kCercle Brugge
2022-04-12€1MCercle Brugge
2022-11-04€800kCercle Brugge
2023-03-22€1.5MCercle Brugge
2023-06-09€2.1MCercle Brugge
2023-12-19€2.5MCercle Brugge
2024-06-04€3MCercle Brugge
2024-12-11€3MCercle Brugge
2025-06-12€2.5MCercle Brugge
2025-12-10€2.5MRoyal Antwerp FC
2026-06-04€3MRoyal Antwerp FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.092

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 67% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 56% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Somers appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).