FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
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  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Bogdan

Moskvichev

GKRussia · Zenit St. Petersburg

№ 718755Emerging €546k +0.10

Player dossierPremier Liga

BogdanMoskvichev

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Zenit St. Petersburg
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
22
Height
193 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Moskvichev at €600k. Model A, which never saw Moskvichev during training, estimates €546k: the market value is 10% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.10. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €599k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.10A €546k▲ 0.00B €599k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
22
Minutes
1,968
Started
22/22
Min / app
89
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Moskvichev…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €600k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €600kModel A €546k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Bogdan Moskvichev's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 38th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 2nd, European club minutes 32nd38thMinutes62ndStarts2ndRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile

70%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€10k
Dec 2021
Peak
€800k
Sept 2024
Model target
€600k
May 2026
Valuations
10
4 club changes
May 2026€600kZenit St. PetersburgValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €600k, Zenit St. Petersburg. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-12-24€10kAkademia Zenit St. Petersburg U17
2022-11-21€50kZenit St. Petersburg II
2023-06-14€75kZenit St. Petersburg II
2023-12-13€100kZenit St. Petersburg II
2024-06-19€400kChayka Peschanokopskoye
2024-09-18€800kFC Orenburg
2024-12-12€800kFC Orenburg
2025-06-04€800kFC Orenburg
2025-12-16€700kZenit St. Petersburg
2026-05-26€600kZenit St. Petersburg

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.095

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 19% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 32% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Moskvichev appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).