FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Mark

Mampassi

CBRussia · Lokomotiv Moscow

№ 712857Emerging €815k −0.71

Player dossierPremier Liga

MarkMampassi

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Lokomotiv Moscow
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
22
Height
185 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
16 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Mampassi at €400k. Model A, which never saw Mampassi during training, estimates €815k: the market value is 51% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.04. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €765k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.71A €815k▼ −0.65B €765k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
24
Minutes
1,763
Goals
1
Assists
1
Started
20/24
Min / app
73
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Mampassi…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €815k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Mark Mampassi's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 64th, Assists per 90 58th, Minutes, two years 28th, Starts 52nd, Minutes, last 365 days 12th, European club minutes 30th64thGoals58thAssists28thMinutes52ndStarts12thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.05 this player0.03 defender median64th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jan 2021
Peak
€1.5M
Jun 2022
Model target
€400k
Dec 2025
Valuations
13
5 club changes
Dec 2025€400kLokomotiv MoscowValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €400k, Lokomotiv Moscow. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-01-14€50kShakhtar Donetsk U19
2021-06-07€200kFC Mariupol
2021-12-20€1MFC Mariupol
2022-06-02€1.5MLokomotiv Moscow
2022-11-21€1.2MLokomotiv Moscow
2023-03-14€1.2MAntalyaspor
2023-06-08€1MAntalyaspor
2023-12-19€800kKV Kortrijk
2024-03-22€600kKV Kortrijk
2024-06-04€800kKV Kortrijk
2024-12-11€700kKV Kortrijk
2025-06-12€500kKV Kortrijk
2025-12-16€400kLokomotiv Moscow

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.711

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 10% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 14% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Mampassi appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).