FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Lesley Ugochukwu

Lesley

Ugochukwu

DMFrance · Burnley FC

№ 711999Elite €17.1M +0.25

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

LesleyUgochukwu

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Burnley FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
France
Age
22
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ugochukwu at €22M. Model A, which never saw Ugochukwu during training, estimates €17.1M: the market value is 28% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.28. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €12.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.25A €17.1M▲ +0.57B €12.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
67
Minutes
4,370
Goals
4
Assists
4
Started
50/67
Min / app
65
Cards
9Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ugochukwu…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €22M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €22MModel A €17.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Lesley Ugochukwu's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 50th, Assists per 90 45th, Minutes, two years 79th, Starts 60th, Minutes, last 365 days 80th, European club minutes 30th50thGoals45thAssists79thMinutes60thStarts80thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,494 this player1,541 midfielder median80th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,800

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Mar 2021
Peak
€25M
Oct 2023
Model target
€22M
Jun 2026
Valuations
16
4 club changes
Jun 2026€22MBurnley FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €22M, Burnley FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-03-09€300kStade Rennais FC B
2021-10-08€1.5MStade Rennais FC
2021-12-16€2.5MStade Rennais FC
2022-05-30€3MStade Rennais FC
2022-11-02€4MStade Rennais FC
2023-03-27€8MStade Rennais FC
2023-06-27€9MStade Rennais FC
2023-10-09€25MChelsea FC
2023-12-19€25MChelsea FC
2024-05-27€25MChelsea FC
2024-12-16€25MSouthampton FC
2025-03-18€20MSouthampton FC
2025-05-30€18MSouthampton FC
2025-10-17€22MBurnley FC
2025-12-09€25MBurnley FC
2026-06-03€22MBurnley FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.251

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 59% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€22MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 90% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€22MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ugochukwu appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).