FairValue

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Portrait of Brenden Aaronson

Brenden

Aaronson

AMUnited States · Leeds United

№ 393323Elite €21.1M +0.04

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

BrendenAaronson

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Leeds United
League
Premier League
Nationality
United States
Age
25
Height
177 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Aaronson at €22M. Model A, which never saw Aaronson during training, estimates €21.1M: the market value is 4% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.04. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.04A €21.1M▲ +1.58B €4.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
42
Minutes
2,749
Goals
4
Assists
5
Started
32/42
Min / app
65
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Aaronson…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €22M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €22MModel A €21.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Brenden Aaronson's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 66th, Assists per 90 75th, Minutes, two years 53rd, Starts 63rd, Minutes, last 365 days 86th, European club minutes 30th66thGoals75thAssists53rdMinutes63rdStarts86thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,749 this player1,541 midfielder median86th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,800

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jul 2018
Peak
€30M
Sept 2022
Model target
€22M
Jun 2026
Valuations
26
5 club changes
Jun 2026€22MLeeds UnitedValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €22M, Leeds United. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-07-11€50kBethlehem Steel FC
2018-11-15€150kBethlehem Steel FC
2019-03-20€450kPhiladelphia Union
2019-05-27€800kPhiladelphia Union
2019-11-30€1.5MPhiladelphia Union
2020-04-08€1.3MPhiladelphia Union
2020-08-26€4MPhiladelphia Union
2020-11-13€8MPhiladelphia Union
2020-12-18€10MPhiladelphia Union
2021-06-02€10MRed Bull Salzburg
2021-12-16€12MRed Bull Salzburg
2022-03-11€20MRed Bull Salzburg
2022-05-27€25MRed Bull Salzburg
2022-09-15€30MLeeds United
2022-11-03€30MLeeds United
2023-06-20€25MLeeds United
2023-10-18€18M1.FC Union Berlin
2023-12-14€14M1.FC Union Berlin
2024-05-29€12M1.FC Union Berlin
2024-09-24€11MLeeds United
2024-12-30€12MLeeds United
2025-03-28€14MLeeds United
2025-05-27€15MLeeds United
2025-12-09€15MLeeds United
2026-03-09€18MLeeds United
2026-06-03€22MLeeds United

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.042

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 59% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€22MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 90% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€22MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Aaronson appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).