EgeBilsel

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club: Bodrum FK
League: Süper Lig
Nationality: Türkiye
Age: 21
Height: 175 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 29 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Bilsel at €900k. Model A, which never saw Bilsel during training, estimates €711k: the market value is 27% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.27. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €456k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 23
Minutes: 1,186
Goals: 0
Assists: 3
Started: 14/23
Min / app: 52
Cards: 4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bilsel…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €900k

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.23 this player0.15 attacker median78th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €50k; Jul 2023
Peak: €1M; Mar 2025
Model target: €900k; Dec 2025
Valuations: 10; 1 club change

Dec 2025€900kBodrum FKValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €900k, Bodrum FK. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2023-07-14	€50k	Antalyaspor
2023-09-27	€50k	Antalyaspor
2023-12-21	€50k	Antalyaspor
2024-03-26	€50k	Bodrum FK
2024-06-13	€75k	Bodrum FK
2024-10-04	€200k	Bodrum FK
2024-12-23	€900k	Bodrum FK
2025-03-20	€1M	Bodrum FK
2025-06-18	€1M	Bodrum FK
2025-12-29	€900k	Bodrum FK

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: +0.236

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 38% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

See them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 28% of the 1,583 attackers.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Bilsel appears

TerminalSüper Lig in the Player Explorer
TerminalSüper Lig on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).