FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Morten

Bjørlo

CMNorway · Konyaspor

№ 230361Emerging €654k +0.32

Player dossierSüper Lig

MortenBjørlo

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Konyaspor
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Norway
Age
30
Height
183 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Bjørlo at €900k. Model A, which never saw Bjørlo during training, estimates €654k: the market value is 38% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.38. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €929k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.32A €654k▼ −0.03B €929k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
37
Minutes
1,617
Goals
0
Assists
4
Started
17/37
Min / app
44
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bjørlo…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €900k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €900kModel A €654k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Morten Bjørlo's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 88th, Minutes, two years 27th, Starts 16th, Minutes, last 365 days 47th, European club minutes 30th10thGoals88thAssists27thMinutes16thStarts47thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.22 this player0.09 midfielder median88th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Dec 2018
Peak
€1M
Mar 2025
Model target
€900k
May 2026
Valuations
13
6 club changes
May 2026€900kKonyasporValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €900k, Konyaspor. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-12-30€50kNest-Sotra FK
2020-12-31€200kStrømmen IF
2022-01-03€400kHamarkameratene
2022-12-09€300kHamarkameratene
2023-06-29€500kRosenborg BK
2023-12-15€500kHamarkameratene
2024-06-12€600kFredrikstad FK
2024-12-12€700kFredrikstad FK
2025-03-20€1MKonyaspor
2025-06-18€1MKonyaspor
2025-10-01€900kKonyaspor
2025-12-17€900kKonyaspor
2026-05-21€900kKonyaspor

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.319

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 38% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€900kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 30% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€900kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Bjørlo appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).