FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Marat

Bokoev

CBRussia · Akron Tolyatti

№ 700755Emerging €1.2M −0.19

Player dossierPremier Liga

MaratBokoev

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Akron Tolyatti
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
24
Height
191 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Bokoev at €1M. Model A, which never saw Bokoev during training, estimates €1.2M: the market value is 17% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.21. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.19A €1.2M▼ −1.02B €2.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
56
Minutes
4,159
Goals
2
Assists
1
Started
44/56
Min / app
74
Cards
10Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bokoev…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €1.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Marat Bokoev's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 59th, Assists per 90 38th, Minutes, two years 72nd, Starts 41st, Minutes, last 365 days 78th, European club minutes 30th59thGoals38thAssists72ndMinutes41stStarts78thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,587 this player1,687 defender median78th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Sept 2019
Peak
€1M
Dec 2025
Model target
€1M
May 2026
Valuations
16
4 club changes
May 2026€1MAkron TolyattiValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1M, Akron Tolyatti. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-09-13€50kSpartak Vladikavkaz (-2020)
2019-12-23€50kSpartak Vladikavkaz (-2020)
2020-12-29€125kFC Krasniy Smolensk
2021-06-28€125kLokomotiv-Kazanka Moscow
2021-12-03€150kLokomotiv-Kazanka Moscow
2022-06-13€125kLokomotiv-Kazanka Moscow
2022-12-08€175kVeles Moscow
2023-06-19€200kVeles Moscow
2023-11-30€275kAkron Tolyatti
2024-06-14€250kAkron Tolyatti
2024-12-12€250kAkron Tolyatti
2025-03-19€400kAkron Tolyatti
2025-06-04€600kAkron Tolyatti
2025-09-18€900kAkron Tolyatti
2025-12-16€1MAkron Tolyatti
2026-05-26€1MAkron Tolyatti

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.187

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 44% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 35% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Bokoev appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).