Arda Okan
Kurtulan
RMTürkiye · Göztepe
Player dossierSüper Lig
Arda OkanKurtulan
RMRight MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Göztepe
- League
- Süper Lig
- Nationality
- Türkiye
- Age
- 23
- Height
- 183 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 21 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Kurtulan at €7M. Model A, which never saw Kurtulan during training, estimates €6.4M: the market value is 10% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.10. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €5.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 58
- Minutes
- 4,719
- Goals
- 5
- Assists
- 7
- Started
- 53/58
- Min / app
- 81
- Cards
- 12Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kurtulan…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €7M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
91% this player69% midfielder median89th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Jul 2021
- Peak
- €7M
- May 2026
- Model target
- €7M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 18
- 5 club changes
May 2026: €7M, Göztepe. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-07-13 | €50k | Fenerbahce |
| 2021-10-12 | €75k | Fenerbahce |
| 2022-01-04 | €75k | Fenerbahce |
| 2022-03-31 | €75k | Fenerbahce |
| 2022-06-01 | €75k | Fenerbahce |
| 2022-09-13 | €225k | Adana Demirspor |
| 2022-10-27 | €250k | Adana Demirspor |
| 2023-06-26 | €200k | Karacabey Belediye Spor |
| 2023-12-29 | €100k | Diyarbekir Spor |
| 2024-06-03 | €200k | Diyarbekir Spor |
| 2024-10-04 | €150k | Adana Demirspor |
| 2024-12-23 | €225k | Adana Demirspor |
| 2025-03-20 | €300k | Adana Demirspor |
| 2025-06-18 | €350k | Adana Demirspor |
| 2025-10-01 | €1M | Göztepe |
| 2025-12-17 | €2.5M | Göztepe |
| 2026-03-05 | €5M | Göztepe |
| 2026-05-21 | €7M | Göztepe |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.092
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M
Valued above 87% of the 428 Süper Lig players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 71% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Kurtulan appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- CernyRWBesiktas JK · Süper Lig€7M
- TaliscaAMFenerbahce · Süper Lig€7M
- HolseAMSamsunspor · Süper Lig€7M
- MüldürRBFenerbahce · Süper Lig€7M
- CristanteDMAS Roma · midfielders€7M
- WinksDMLeicester City · midfielders€7M
- MoroDMBologna FC 1909 · midfielders€7M
- CeballosCMReal Madrid · midfielders€7M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).