FairValue

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Daniel

Rivas

LBParaguay · Avs Futebol

№ 690124Emerging €644k −0.25

Player dossierLiga Portugal

DanielRivas

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Avs Futebol
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Paraguay
Age
24
Height
177 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Rivas at €500k. Model A, which never saw Rivas during training, estimates €644k: the market value is 22% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.29. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.25A €644k▼ −0.72B €1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
26
Minutes
1,527
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
17/26
Min / app
59
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Rivas…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €500kModel A €644k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Daniel Rivas's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 63rd, Minutes, two years 23rd, Starts 21st, Minutes, last 365 days 45th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals63rdAssists23rdMinutes21stStarts45thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.06 this player0.04 defender median63rd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Mar 2020
Peak
€1M
Jun 2022
Model target
€500k
May 2026
Valuations
15
4 club changes
May 2026€500kAvs FutebolValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €500k, Avs Futebol. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-03-02€200kUnknown
2020-10-14€150kClub Cerro Porteño
2021-02-02€250kClub Cerro Porteño
2021-06-28€250kClub Cerro Porteño
2021-12-09€800kClub Cerro Porteño
2022-06-15€1MClub Cerro Porteño
2022-11-30€900kClub Cerro Porteño
2023-06-30€900kClub Cerro Porteño
2023-12-06€800kClub Cerro Porteño
2024-06-13€800kClub Nacional Asunción
2024-12-23€800kClub Nacional Asunción
2025-03-17€600kClub Cerro Porteño
2025-05-13€600kClub Cerro Porteño
2025-12-18€500kAvs Futebol
2026-05-28€500kAvs Futebol

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.254

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 20% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 19% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Rivas appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).