FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Chadi Riad

Chadi

Riad

CBMorocco · Crystal Palace

№ 689637Elite €8.3M +0.59

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

ChadiRiad

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Crystal Palace
League
Premier League
Nationality
Morocco
Age
22
Height
186 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Riad at €15M. Model A, which never saw Riad during training, estimates €8.3M: the market value is 80% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.80. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €696k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.59A €8.3M▲ +3.07B €696k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
12
Minutes
744
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
9/12
Min / app
62
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Riad…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €15M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €15MModel A €8.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Chadi Riad's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 82nd, Minutes, two years 6th, Starts 35th, Minutes, last 365 days 13th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals82ndAssists6thMinutes35thStarts13thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.12 this player0.04 defender median82nd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Sept 2022
Peak
€15M
Jun 2024
Model target
€15M
Jun 2026
Valuations
11
2 club changes
Jun 2026€15MCrystal PalaceValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €15M, Crystal Palace. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-09-26€300kFC Barcelona Atlètic
2022-12-29€500kFC Barcelona Atlètic
2023-06-30€500kFC Barcelona Atlètic
2023-10-13€1MReal Betis Balompié
2023-12-22€6MReal Betis Balompié
2024-06-07€15MReal Betis Balompié
2024-12-16€15MCrystal Palace
2025-05-30€15MCrystal Palace
2025-10-17€12MCrystal Palace
2025-12-09€12MCrystal Palace
2026-06-03€15MCrystal Palace

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.589

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 43% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€15MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 87% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€15MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Riad appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).