Adriano
Firmino
DMBrazil · CD Santa Clara
Player dossierLiga Portugal
AdrianoFirmino
DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- CD Santa Clara
- League
- Liga Portugal
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Age
- 26
- Height
- 187 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 18 Dec 2025
Liga PortugalReading the valuation
The market values Firmino at €2.5M. Model A, which never saw Firmino during training, estimates €1.6M: the market value is 57% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.57. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 33
- Minutes
- 2,655
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 2
- Started
- 31/33
- Min / app
- 80
- Cards
- 8Y 1R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Firmino…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
94% this player69% midfielder median92nd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Aug 2019
- Peak
- €2.5M
- May 2025
- Model target
- €2.5M
- Dec 2025
- Valuations
- 11
- 2 club changes
Dec 2025: €2.5M, CD Santa Clara. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2019-08-15 | €50k | Unknown |
| 2019-11-27 | €50k | Unknown |
| 2021-08-12 | €200k | Cruzeiro Esporte Clube |
| 2022-08-05 | €600k | Cruzeiro Esporte Clube |
| 2022-11-01 | €600k | CD Santa Clara |
| 2023-06-16 | €500k | CD Santa Clara |
| 2023-12-14 | €600k | CD Santa Clara |
| 2024-06-20 | €750k | CD Santa Clara |
| 2024-12-19 | €1.5M | CD Santa Clara |
| 2025-05-30 | €2.5M | CD Santa Clara |
| 2025-12-18 | €2.5M | CD Santa Clara |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.454
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M
Valued above 64% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 51% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Firmino appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- GrillitschDMSC Braga · Liga Portugal€2.5M
- SamuAMVitória Guimarães SC · Liga Portugal€2.5M
- LivolantRWCasa Pia AC · Liga Portugal€2.5M
- VeronRWCD Nacional · Liga Portugal€2.5M
- EriksenAMVfL Wolfsburg · midfielders€2.5M
- GroßCMBrighton & Hove Albion · midfielders€2.5M
- BuyalskyiAMDynamo Kyiv · midfielders€2.5M
- TouréDMLe Havre AC · midfielders€2.5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).