FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Kevin

Rodríguez

CFEcuador · Union Saint-Gilloise

№ 684159Established €4M +0.39

Player dossierPro League

KevinRodríguez

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Union Saint-Gilloise
League
Pro League
Nationality
Ecuador
Age
26
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Rodríguez at €6M. Model A, which never saw Rodríguez during training, estimates €4M: the market value is 48% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.48. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €7.2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.39A €4M▼ −0.18B €7.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
70
Minutes
3,458
Goals
11
Assists
5
Started
37/70
Min / app
49
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Rodríguez…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €6M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €6MModel A €4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Kevin Rodríguez's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 54th, Assists per 90 43rd, Minutes, two years 73rd, Starts 40th, Minutes, last 365 days 81st, European club minutes 92nd54thGoals43rdAssists73rdMinutes40thStarts81stRecent92ndEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

27% this player0% attacker median92nd percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Nov 2022
Peak
€6M
Jun 2026
Model target
€6M
Jun 2026
Valuations
12
2 club changes
Jun 2026€6MUnion Saint-GilloiseValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €6M, Union Saint-Gilloise. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-11-15€300kImbabura SC
2022-12-23€500kImbabura SC
2023-07-14€500kIndependiente del Valle
2023-10-23€1MUnion Saint-Gilloise
2023-12-19€3MUnion Saint-Gilloise
2024-06-04€3MUnion Saint-Gilloise
2024-12-11€2.5MUnion Saint-Gilloise
2025-03-26€2MUnion Saint-Gilloise
2025-06-12€1.5MUnion Saint-Gilloise
2025-10-01€3MUnion Saint-Gilloise
2025-12-10€5MUnion Saint-Gilloise
2026-06-04€6MUnion Saint-Gilloise

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.395

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 89% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 68% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Rodríguez appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).