Paulo
Victor
GKBrazil · Alanyaspor
Player dossierSüper Lig
PauloVictor
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- Alanyaspor
- League
- Süper Lig
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Age
- 39
- Height
- 187 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 21 May 2026
Süper LigReading the valuation
The market values Victor at €50k. Model A, which never saw Victor during training, estimates €77k: the market value is 35% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.54. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €187k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 14
- Minutes
- 1,260
- Started
- 14/14
- Min / app
- 90
- Cards
- 3Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Victor…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €50k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Feb 2008
- Peak
- €4.5M
- May 2015
- Model target
- €50k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 37
- 6 club changes
May 2026: €50k, Alanyaspor. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2008-02-04 | €50k | CR Flamengo |
| 2010-07-30 | €150k | CR Flamengo |
| 2010-09-06 | €200k | CR Flamengo |
| 2011-05-30 | €200k | CR Flamengo |
| 2011-12-08 | €250k | CR Flamengo |
| 2012-05-24 | €750k | CR Flamengo |
| 2012-07-29 | €1M | CR Flamengo |
| 2012-12-05 | €1M | CR Flamengo |
| 2013-08-26 | €750k | CR Flamengo |
| 2014-08-06 | €750k | CR Flamengo |
| 2015-02-01 | €3M | CR Flamengo |
| 2015-05-31 | €4.5M | CR Flamengo |
| 2015-12-15 | €4M | CR Flamengo |
| 2016-05-27 | €4M | CR Flamengo |
| 2016-11-28 | €2M | CR Flamengo |
| 2017-03-29 | €2M | Gaziantepspor |
| 2017-06-09 | €1.2M | Gaziantepspor |
| 2017-12-07 | €1M | Grêmio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense |
| 2018-05-23 | €900k | Grêmio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense |
| 2019-02-18 | €900k | Grêmio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense |
| 2019-08-15 | €1.5M | Grêmio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense |
| 2019-11-27 | €1.5M | Grêmio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense |
| 2020-04-08 | €1.2M | Grêmio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense |
| 2020-09-09 | €1.2M | Grêmio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense |
| 2021-02-09 | €800k | Grêmio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense |
| 2021-05-28 | €500k | Grêmio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense |
| 2021-12-27 | €300k | CS Marítimo |
| 2022-05-31 | €300k | CS Marítimo |
| 2022-12-02 | €100k | Al-Ettifaq FC |
| 2023-06-12 | €100k | Al-Ettifaq FC |
| 2023-12-15 | €100k | Al-Ettifaq FC |
| 2024-06-04 | €100k | Al-Ettifaq FC |
| 2024-12-10 | €100k | Al-Rayyan SC |
| 2025-05-28 | €100k | Al-Rayyan SC |
| 2025-10-01 | €50k | Alanyaspor |
| 2025-12-17 | €50k | Alanyaspor |
| 2026-05-21 | €50k | Alanyaspor |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.431
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M
The joint lowest observed value among 428 Süper Lig players.
See them in the Explorer →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Valued above 0% of the 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Victor appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- DeğirmenciGKKocaelispor · Süper Lig€50k
- KöybaşıLBGöztepe · Süper Lig€50k
- KaynakRWAdana Demirspor · Süper Lig€75k
- KaracaRWAlanyaspor · Süper Lig€100k
- GordonGKHeart of Midlothian FC · goalkeepers€50k
- HansenGKAarhus GF · goalkeepers€50k
- LösslGKFC Midtjylland · goalkeepers€50k
- BelenovGKFC Ufa · goalkeepers€50k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).