FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Eduard

Sarapiy

CBUkraine · Polissya Zhytomyr

№ 678778Established €3.6M −0.36

Player dossierPremier Liha

EduardSarapiy

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Polissya Zhytomyr
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Ukraine
Age
27
Height
186 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Sarapiy at €2.5M. Model A, which never saw Sarapiy during training, estimates €3.6M: the market value is 30% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.43. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €6.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.36A €3.6M▼ −0.95B €6.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
63
Minutes
5,300
Goals
8
Assists
0
Started
57/63
Min / app
84
Cards
13Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Sarapiy…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2.5MModel A €3.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Eduard Sarapiy's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 94th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 87th, Starts 70th, Minutes, last 365 days 92nd, European club minutes 75th94thGoals17thAssists87thMinutes70thStarts92ndRecent75thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.14 this player0.03 defender median94th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Sept 2019
Peak
€2.5M
Jun 2026
Model target
€2.5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
15
3 club changes
Jun 2026€2.5MPolissya ZhytomyrValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €2.5M, Polissya Zhytomyr. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-09-14€50kMFC Metalurg Zaporizhya
2019-12-18€75kMFC Metalurg Zaporizhya
2020-08-18€100kMFC Metalurg Zaporizhya
2021-07-27€100kMetalist Kharkiv
2021-12-06€200kMetalist Kharkiv
2022-05-18€200kMetalist Kharkiv
2022-09-06€500kSC Dnipro-1
2022-12-06€1MSC Dnipro-1
2023-06-21€1.5MSC Dnipro-1
2023-12-11€1.5MSC Dnipro-1
2024-06-06€1.5MSC Dnipro-1
2024-12-17€1.2MPolissya Zhytomyr
2025-06-10€1.2MPolissya Zhytomyr
2025-12-18€1.5MPolissya Zhytomyr
2026-06-02€2.5MPolissya Zhytomyr

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.361

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 89% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 54% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Sarapiy appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).