FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Bogdan

Mykhaylichenko

LBUkraine · Polissya Zhytomyr

№ 294730Established €2.1M +0.15

Player dossierPremier Liha

BogdanMykhaylichenko

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Polissya Zhytomyr
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Ukraine
Age
29
Height
178 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Mykhaylichenko at €2.5M. Model A, which never saw Mykhaylichenko during training, estimates €2.1M: the market value is 16% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.16. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.15A €2.1M▼ −0.33B €3.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
66
Minutes
5,715
Goals
2
Assists
3
Started
63/66
Min / app
87
Cards
12Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Mykhaylichenko…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2.5MModel A €2.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Bogdan Mykhaylichenko's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 49th, Assists per 90 55th, Minutes, two years 91st, Starts 85th, Minutes, last 365 days 91st, European club minutes 71st49thGoals55thAssists91stMinutes85thStarts91stRecent71stEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

5,715 this player2,860 defender median91st percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€500k
Jan 2018
Peak
€4M
Jun 2023
Model target
€2.5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
22
5 club changes
Jun 2026€2.5MPolissya ZhytomyrValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €2.5M, Polissya Zhytomyr. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-01-12€500kDynamo Kyiv II
2018-08-06€500kZorya Lugansk
2018-12-10€700kZorya Lugansk
2019-06-20€700kZorya Lugansk
2020-01-08€1MZorya Lugansk
2020-04-08€800kZorya Lugansk
2020-08-06€1.5MRSC Anderlecht
2020-10-16€2.5MRSC Anderlecht
2021-03-17€2MRSC Anderlecht
2021-05-27€2.5MRSC Anderlecht
2021-10-06€2MRSC Anderlecht
2022-01-06€2MRSC Anderlecht
2022-04-12€1.5MRSC Anderlecht
2022-12-06€2.5MShakhtar Donetsk
2023-03-28€3MShakhtar Donetsk
2023-06-21€4MShakhtar Donetsk
2023-12-18€2.5MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2024-06-06€2.5MPolissya Zhytomyr
2024-12-17€2MPolissya Zhytomyr
2025-06-10€2MPolissya Zhytomyr
2025-12-18€2.5MPolissya Zhytomyr
2026-06-02€2.5MPolissya Zhytomyr

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.152

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 89% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 54% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Mykhaylichenko appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).