FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Jovan

Mijatovic

CFSerbia · Oud-Heverlee Leuven

№ 673432Established €858k +0.94

Player dossierPro League

JovanMijatovic

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
League
Pro League
Nationality
Serbia
Age
20
Height
179 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
10 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Mijatovic at €2.2M. Model A, which never saw Mijatovic during training, estimates €858k: the market value is 156% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.56. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €992k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.94A €858k▲ +0.80B €992k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
18
Minutes
848
Goals
1
Assists
1
Started
8/18
Min / app
47
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Mijatovic…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2.2MModel A €858k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Jovan Mijatovic's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 15th, Assists per 90 34th, Minutes, two years 14th, Starts 26th, Minutes, last 365 days 31st, European club minutes 28th15thGoals34thAssists14thMinutes26thStarts31stRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.11 this player0.15 attacker median34th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€400k
Sept 2022
Peak
€6M
Mar 2024
Model target
€2.2M
Dec 2025
Valuations
10
3 club changes
Dec 2025€2.2MOud-Heverlee LeuvenValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €2.2M, Oud-Heverlee Leuven. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-09-13€400kGraficar Belgrad
2022-11-18€1.5MRed Star Belgrade
2023-06-22€1.8MRed Star Belgrade
2023-12-27€3MRed Star Belgrade
2024-03-25€6MNew York City FC
2024-06-13€6MNew York City FC
2024-12-12€4.5MNew York City FC
2025-03-26€3.5MOud-Heverlee Leuven
2025-06-12€3MOud-Heverlee Leuven
2025-12-10€2.2MOud-Heverlee Leuven

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.941

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 59% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€2.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 48% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€2.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Mijatovic appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).