FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Thomas

Claes

CMBelgium · Zulte Waregem

№ 671682Emerging €2.2M −0.36

Player dossierPro League

ThomasClaes

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Zulte Waregem
League
Pro League
Nationality
Belgium
Age
22
Height
181 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Claes at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Claes during training, estimates €2.2M: the market value is 30% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.44. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.36A €2.2M▼ −0.36B €2.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
34
Minutes
2,786
Goals
2
Assists
1
Started
32/34
Min / app
82
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Claes…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.5MModel A €2.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Thomas Claes's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 41st, Assists per 90 21st, Minutes, two years 54th, Starts 92nd, Minutes, last 365 days 87th, European club minutes 30th41stGoals21stAssists54thMinutes92ndStarts87thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

94% this player69% midfielder median92nd percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Oct 2022
Peak
€1.5M
Mar 2026
Model target
€1.5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
12
2 club changes
Jun 2026€1.5MZulte WaregemValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.5M, Zulte Waregem. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-10-05€100kJong Genk
2022-12-22€150kJong Genk
2023-05-30€150kJong Genk
2023-10-02€200kJong Genk
2023-12-28€400kJong Genk
2024-06-20€600kJong Genk
2024-12-11€500kKRC Genk
2025-06-12€400kKRC Genk
2025-10-01€700kZulte Waregem
2025-12-10€1.2MZulte Waregem
2026-03-13€1.5MZulte Waregem
2026-06-04€1.5MZulte Waregem

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.364

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 39% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 39% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Claes appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).