FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Tawanda

Maswanhise

CFZimbabwe · Motherwell FC

№ 670987Established €3.3M +0.42

Player dossierPremiership

TawandaMaswanhise

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Motherwell FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
Zimbabwe
Age
23
Height
180 cm
Foot
–
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Maswanhise at €5M. Model A, which never saw Maswanhise during training, estimates €3.3M: the market value is 53% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.53. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.42A €3.3M▲ +0.90B €2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
60
Minutes
4,182
Goals
23
Assists
5
Started
49/60
Min / app
70
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Maswanhise…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €5MModel A €3.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Tawanda Maswanhise's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 87th, Assists per 90 35th, Minutes, two years 83rd, Starts 85th, Minutes, last 365 days 90th, European club minutes 28th87thGoals35thAssists83rdMinutes85thStarts90thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,646 this player1,301 attacker median90th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,703

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Oct 2024
Peak
€5M
May 2026
Model target
€5M
May 2026
Valuations
7
0 club changes
May 2026€5MMotherwell FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €5M, Motherwell FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2024-10-02€100kMotherwell FC
2024-12-03€300kMotherwell FC
2025-03-12€450kMotherwell FC
2025-06-17€450kMotherwell FC
2025-12-10€700kMotherwell FC
2026-03-05€3.5MMotherwell FC
2026-05-20€5MMotherwell FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.423

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 92% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 64% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Maswanhise appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).