FairValue

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Portrait of Danny Welbeck

Danny

Welbeck

CFEngland · Brighton & Hove Albion

№ 67063Established €2.2M +0.30

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

DannyWelbeck

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Brighton & Hove Albion
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
35
Height
185 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Welbeck at €3M. Model A, which never saw Welbeck during training, estimates €2.2M: the market value is 35% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.35. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.5M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.30A €2.2M▲ +0.18B €2.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
74
Minutes
4,795
Goals
25
Assists
6
Started
54/74
Min / app
65
Cards
9Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Welbeck…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €2.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Danny Welbeck's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 84th, Assists per 90 37th, Minutes, two years 89th, Starts 73rd, Minutes, last 365 days 85th, European club minutes 28th84thGoals37thAssists89thMinutes73rdStarts85thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

4,795 this player2,242 attacker median89th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●8,788

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Aug 2008
Peak
€18M
Oct 2014
Model target
€3M
Jun 2026
Valuations
39
6 club changes
Jun 2026€3MBrighton & Hove AlbionValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €3M, Brighton & Hove Albion. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2008-08-18€150kManchester United
2009-02-23€700kManchester United
2009-06-29€1.8MManchester United
2010-01-25€2.5MPreston North End
2011-02-01€6MSunderland AFC
2011-08-08€6MManchester United
2012-02-06€13MManchester United
2012-06-24€17MManchester United
2013-01-28€17MManchester United
2013-07-02€14MManchester United
2014-01-15€17MManchester United
2014-08-12€17MManchester United
2014-10-05€18MArsenal FC
2015-02-12€18MArsenal FC
2015-07-01€17MArsenal FC
2016-02-09€17MArsenal FC
2016-08-01€17MArsenal FC
2017-02-20€17MArsenal FC
2017-06-28€15MArsenal FC
2018-01-02€15MArsenal FC
2018-05-28€15MArsenal FC
2018-12-19€15MArsenal FC
2019-06-13€12MArsenal FC
2019-12-10€9MWatford FC
2020-03-09€7MWatford FC
2020-04-08€5.5MWatford FC
2021-03-18€5MBrighton & Hove Albion
2021-06-08€4MBrighton & Hove Albion
2021-12-23€3MBrighton & Hove Albion
2022-06-15€4MBrighton & Hove Albion
2022-09-15€6MBrighton & Hove Albion
2022-11-03€8MBrighton & Hove Albion
2023-06-20€7MBrighton & Hove Albion
2023-12-19€6MBrighton & Hove Albion
2024-05-27€5MBrighton & Hove Albion
2024-12-16€5MBrighton & Hove Albion
2025-05-30€5MBrighton & Hove Albion
2025-12-09€4MBrighton & Hove Albion
2026-06-03€3MBrighton & Hove Albion

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.303

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 12% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 52% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Welbeck appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).