FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Tanner

Tessmann

DMUnited States · Olympique Lyon

№ 670096Elite €13.9M −0.33

Player dossierLigue 1

TannerTessmann

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Olympique Lyon
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
United States
Age
24
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Tessmann at €10M. Model A, which never saw Tessmann during training, estimates €13.9M: the market value is 28% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.39. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €10.7M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.33A €13.9M▼ −0.07B €10.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
72
Minutes
4,183
Goals
3
Assists
0
Started
46/72
Min / app
58
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Tessmann…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €13.9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Tanner Tessmann's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 41st, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 77th, Starts 40th, Minutes, last 365 days 77th, European club minutes 90th41stGoals8thAssists77thMinutes40thStarts77thRecent90thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

24% this player0% midfielder median90th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Oct 2019
Peak
€12M
Dec 2025
Model target
€10M
Jun 2026
Valuations
18
3 club changes
Jun 2026€10MOlympique LyonValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €10M, Olympique Lyon. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-10-25€100kNorth Texas SC
2020-08-26€600kFC Dallas
2020-12-18€1MFC Dallas
2021-07-09€1MFC Dallas
2021-10-14€2MVenezia FC
2021-12-28€2.5MVenezia FC
2022-06-07€2.5MVenezia FC
2022-12-22€2MVenezia FC
2023-06-12€2.4MVenezia FC
2023-12-27€3.2MVenezia FC
2024-03-25€4.5MVenezia FC
2024-06-03€7MVenezia FC
2024-12-10€6MOlympique Lyon
2025-06-03€6MOlympique Lyon
2025-10-10€10MOlympique Lyon
2025-12-15€12MOlympique Lyon
2026-03-27€10MOlympique Lyon
2026-06-01€10MOlympique Lyon

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.328

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 66% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 78% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Tessmann appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).