FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Matías Soulé

Matías

Soulé

RWArgentina · AS Roma

№ 668951World Class €33.6M +0.04

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

MatíasSoulé

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
AS Roma
League
Serie A
Nationality
Argentina
Age
23
Height
182 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Soulé at €35M. Model A, which never saw Soulé during training, estimates €33.6M: the market value is 4% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.04. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €24.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.04A €33.6M▲ +0.35B €24.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
81
Minutes
5,002
Goals
12
Assists
13
Started
61/81
Min / app
62
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Soulé…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €35M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €35MModel A €33.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Matías Soulé's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 40th, Assists per 90 79th, Minutes, two years 91st, Starts 76th, Minutes, last 365 days 92nd, European club minutes 82nd40thGoals79thAssists91stMinutes76thStarts92ndRecent82ndEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,778 this player1,301 attacker median92nd percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,703

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€2.5M
Dec 2021
Peak
€35M
Oct 2025
Model target
€35M
May 2026
Valuations
12
3 club changes
May 2026€35MAS RomaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €35M, AS Roma. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-12-20€2.5MJuventus U23
2022-06-20€2.5MJuventus U23
2022-11-11€4MJuventus FC
2023-06-15€4MJuventus FC
2023-10-11€8MFrosinone Calcio
2023-12-20€25MFrosinone Calcio
2024-06-05€25MFrosinone Calcio
2024-12-18€22MAS Roma
2025-06-17€30MAS Roma
2025-10-07€35MAS Roma
2025-12-23€35MAS Roma
2026-05-29€35MAS Roma

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.042

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 94% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€35MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 94% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€35MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Soulé appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).