FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Valentyn

Rubchynskyi

CMUkraine · Karpaty Lviv

№ 666943Emerging €549k +0.31

Player dossierPremier Liha

ValentynRubchynskyi

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Karpaty Lviv
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Ukraine
Age
24
Height
172 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Rubchynskyi at €750k. Model A, which never saw Rubchynskyi during training, estimates €549k: the market value is 37% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.37. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €5.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.31A €549k▼ −2.05B €5.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
42
Minutes
1,675
Goals
3
Assists
1
Started
17/42
Min / app
40
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Rubchynskyi…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €750k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €750kModel A €549k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Valentyn Rubchynskyi's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 75th, Assists per 90 30th, Minutes, two years 29th, Starts 12th, Minutes, last 365 days 10th, European club minutes 84th75thGoals30thAssists29thMinutes12thStarts10thRecent84thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

20% this player0% midfielder median84th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jul 2022
Peak
€2M
Dec 2024
Model target
€750k
Jun 2026
Valuations
10
2 club changes
Jun 2026€750kKarpaty LvivValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €750k, Karpaty Lviv. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-07-01€50kSC Dnipro-1
2022-09-06€200kSC Dnipro-1
2022-12-06€800kSC Dnipro-1
2023-06-21€1MSC Dnipro-1
2023-12-11€1.2MSC Dnipro-1
2024-06-06€1.8MSC Dnipro-1
2024-12-17€2MDynamo Kyiv
2025-06-10€1.8MDynamo Kyiv
2025-12-18€1MDynamo Kyiv
2026-06-02€750kKarpaty Lviv

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.311

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 71% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€750kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 26% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€750kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Rubchynskyi appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).