FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Maestro

DMAngola · Alanyaspor

№ 666551Established €2.2M +1.14

Player dossierSüper Lig

Maestro

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Alanyaspor
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Angola
Age
22
Height
173 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Maestro at €7M. Model A, which never saw Maestro during training, estimates €2.2M: the market value is 212% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×3.12. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +1.14A €2.2M▲ +0.79B €3.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
55
Minutes
4,353
Goals
2
Assists
2
Started
49/55
Min / app
79
Cards
10Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Maestro…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €7M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €7MModel A €2.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Maestro's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 29th, Assists per 90 24th, Minutes, two years 79th, Starts 85th, Minutes, last 365 days 49th, European club minutes 30th29thGoals24thAssists79thMinutes85thStarts49thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

89% this player69% midfielder median85th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Apr 2022
Peak
€7M
Mar 2026
Model target
€7M
May 2026
Valuations
14
3 club changes
May 2026€7MAlanyasporValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €7M, Alanyaspor. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-04-01€200kCF Estrela Amadora
2022-06-27€200kCF Estrela Amadora
2022-12-28€150kSL Benfica B
2023-06-28€500kSL Benfica B
2023-12-14€750kSL Benfica B
2024-03-15€700kAdana Demirspor
2024-05-31€1.2MAdana Demirspor
2024-10-04€2MAdana Demirspor
2024-12-23€2MAdana Demirspor
2025-03-20€2.5MAdana Demirspor
2025-06-18€2.5MAdana Demirspor
2025-12-17€4MAlanyaspor
2026-03-05€7MAlanyaspor
2026-05-21€7MAlanyaspor

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+1.139

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 87% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€7MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 71% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€7MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Maestro appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).