FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Beni

Mukendi

CMAngola · Vitória Guimarães SC

№ 666539Established €2.8M +0.36

Player dossierLiga Portugal

BeniMukendi

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Vitória Guimarães SC
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Angola
Age
24
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Mukendi at €4M. Model A, which never saw Mukendi during training, estimates €2.8M: the market value is 43% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.43. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.36A €2.8M▲ +0.24B €3.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
52
Minutes
3,414
Goals
1
Assists
2
Started
39/52
Min / app
66
Cards
11Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Mukendi…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €4MModel A €2.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Beni Mukendi's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 23rd, Assists per 90 30th, Minutes, two years 64th, Starts 61st, Minutes, last 365 days 80th, European club minutes 30th23rdGoals30thAssists64thMinutes61stStarts80thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,496 this player1,541 midfielder median80th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,800

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
Jun 2021
Peak
€4M
May 2026
Model target
€4M
May 2026
Valuations
14
2 club changes
May 2026€4MVitória Guimarães SCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €4M, Vitória Guimarães SC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-06-29€250kCD Trofense
2022-04-01€200kCD Trofense
2022-06-27€200kCD Trofense
2022-12-28€525kCD Trofense
2023-06-16€600kCasa Pia AC
2023-12-27€600kCasa Pia AC
2024-03-08€700kCasa Pia AC
2024-06-06€700kCasa Pia AC
2024-12-19€600kCasa Pia AC
2025-03-31€2MVitória Guimarães SC
2025-05-30€2MVitória Guimarães SC
2025-12-18€2MVitória Guimarães SC
2026-03-19€3MVitória Guimarães SC
2026-05-28€4MVitória Guimarães SC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.358

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 72% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 61% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Mukendi appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).