FairValue

Checking model

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Oriol

Romeu

DMSpain · Southampton FC

№ 66100Emerging €1.4M −0.67

Player dossierPremier League

OriolRomeu

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Southampton FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Spain
Age
34
Height
183 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Romeu at €700k. Model A, which never saw Romeu during training, estimates €1.4M: the market value is 49% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.95. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €844k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.67A €1.4M▼ −0.19B €844k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
51
Minutes
2,355
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
27/51
Min / app
46
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Romeu…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €700k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €700kModel A €1.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Oriol Romeu's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 45th, Starts 25th, Minutes, last 365 days 31st, European club minutes 89th10thGoals8thAssists45thMinutes25thStarts31stRecent89thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

23% this player0% midfielder median89th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€2M
Aug 2010
Peak
€12M
Jan 2018
Model target
€700k
Dec 2025
Valuations
38
10 club changes
Dec 2025€700kSouthampton FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €700k, Southampton FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2010-08-20€2MFC Barcelona B
2010-12-09€2.5MFC Barcelona B
2011-02-04€2.5MFC Barcelona B
2011-08-12€5MChelsea FC
2012-02-06€9.5MChelsea FC
2012-06-24€8MChelsea FC
2013-01-28€7.5MChelsea FC
2013-07-02€7.5MChelsea FC
2013-07-25€7MValencia CF
2014-01-23€7MValencia CF
2014-08-21€4.5MVfB Stuttgart
2015-02-04€4.5MVfB Stuttgart
2015-03-29€3.5MVfB Stuttgart
2015-07-01€2.5MChelsea FC
2015-10-14€5MSouthampton FC
2016-02-09€5MSouthampton FC
2016-08-01€5MSouthampton FC
2017-02-20€7MSouthampton FC
2017-06-28€10MSouthampton FC
2018-01-02€12MSouthampton FC
2018-05-28€12MSouthampton FC
2018-12-19€12MSouthampton FC
2019-06-13€10MSouthampton FC
2019-12-10€10MSouthampton FC
2020-04-08€8MSouthampton FC
2020-10-13€8MSouthampton FC
2021-03-18€7MSouthampton FC
2021-06-08€6MSouthampton FC
2021-12-23€5MSouthampton FC
2022-06-15€5MSouthampton FC
2022-11-07€5MGirona FC
2023-06-13€5MGirona FC
2023-12-22€3MFC Barcelona
2024-06-07€2MFC Barcelona
2024-12-27€1.8MGirona FC
2025-06-09€1.2MGirona FC
2025-10-21€800kWithout Club
2025-12-03€700kSouthampton FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.666

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 4% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 23% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Romeu appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).