Abu
Francis
CMGhana · FC Toulouse
Player dossierLigue 1
AbuFrancis
CMCentral MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- FC Toulouse
- League
- Ligue 1
- Nationality
- Ghana
- Age
- 25
- Height
- 182 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 1 Jun 2026
Ligue 1Reading the valuation
The market values Francis at €2M. Model A, which never saw Francis during training, estimates €3.6M: the market value is 44% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.80. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.7M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 42
- Minutes
- 2,574
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 4
- Started
- 29/42
- Min / app
- 61
- Cards
- 4Y 1R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Francis…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
15% this player0% midfielder median77th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €500k
- Sept 2019
- Peak
- €2M
- Jun 2024
- Model target
- €2M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 16
- 2 club changes
Jun 2026: €2M, FC Toulouse. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2019-09-09 | €500k | FC Nordsjaelland |
| 2019-12-22 | €1.5M | FC Nordsjaelland |
| 2020-04-08 | €1.3M | FC Nordsjaelland |
| 2020-07-31 | €1.5M | FC Nordsjaelland |
| 2020-12-23 | €1.5M | FC Nordsjaelland |
| 2021-06-04 | €1M | FC Nordsjaelland |
| 2021-12-28 | €1.5M | FC Nordsjaelland |
| 2022-06-20 | €1M | FC Nordsjaelland |
| 2022-11-04 | €900k | Cercle Brugge |
| 2023-06-09 | €1.5M | Cercle Brugge |
| 2023-12-19 | €1.5M | Cercle Brugge |
| 2024-06-04 | €2M | Cercle Brugge |
| 2024-12-11 | €1.8M | Cercle Brugge |
| 2025-06-12 | €1.8M | Cercle Brugge |
| 2025-12-15 | €2M | FC Toulouse |
| 2026-06-01 | €2M | FC Toulouse |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.586
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Ligue 1423 players · median €5M
Valued above 20% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 46% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Francis appears
- TerminalLigue 1 in the Player Explorer
- TerminalLigue 1 on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- MasuakuLBRC Lens · Ligue 1€2M
- GbaminCBFC Metz · Ligue 1€2M
- MbembaCBLOSC Lille · Ligue 1€2M
- AbdiLBOGC Nice · Ligue 1€2M
- GündoğanCMGalatasaray · midfielders€2M
- GudeljDMSevilla FC · midfielders€2M
- HazardAMRSC Anderlecht · midfielders€2M
- McGregorDMCeltic FC · midfielders€2M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).