FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Göktan

Gürpüz

AMTürkiye · Genclerbirligi Ankara

№ 655912Established €1.5M +0.30

Player dossierSüper Lig

GöktanGürpüz

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Genclerbirligi Ankara
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Türkiye
Age
23
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Gürpüz at €2M. Model A, which never saw Gürpüz during training, estimates €1.5M: the market value is 35% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.35. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.5M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.30A €1.5M▼ −0.21B €2.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
29
Minutes
1,940
Goals
0
Assists
6
Started
25/29
Min / app
67
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Gürpüz…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2MModel A €1.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Göktan Gürpüz's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 94th, Minutes, two years 35th, Starts 80th, Minutes, last 365 days 63rd, European club minutes 30th10thGoals94thAssists35thMinutes80thStarts63rdRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.28 this player0.09 midfielder median94th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Aug 2021
Peak
€2M
Mar 2026
Model target
€2M
May 2026
Valuations
17
4 club changes
May 2026€2MGenclerbirligi AnkaraValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €2M, Genclerbirligi Ankara. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-08-07€100kBorussia Dortmund U19
2021-12-22€250kBorussia Dortmund U19
2022-10-05€250kBorussia Dortmund II
2022-12-08€300kBorussia Dortmund II
2023-06-13€300kBorussia Dortmund II
2023-09-27€375kTrabzonspor
2023-12-21€325kTrabzonspor
2024-03-15€325kTrabzonspor
2024-05-31€300kTrabzonspor
2024-10-16€500kFatih Karagümrük
2025-01-09€750kFatih Karagümrük
2025-04-02€1MFatih Karagümrük
2025-06-25€1MFatih Karagümrük
2025-10-01€1.5MGenclerbirligi Ankara
2025-12-17€1.8MGenclerbirligi Ankara
2026-03-05€2MGenclerbirligi Ankara
2026-05-21€2MGenclerbirligi Ankara

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.299

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 61% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 46% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Gürpüz appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).