FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Anton

Kade

AMGermany · FC Augsburg

№ 654234Elite €9.2M +0.08

Player dossierBundesliga

AntonKade

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
FC Augsburg
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Germany
Age
22
Height
185 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Kade at €10M. Model A, which never saw Kade during training, estimates €9.2M: the market value is 9% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.09. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.08A €9.2M▲ +1.65B €1.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
29
Minutes
1,824
Goals
6
Assists
1
Started
19/29
Min / app
63
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kade…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €9.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Anton Kade's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 93rd, Assists per 90 28th, Minutes, two years 32nd, Starts 43rd, Minutes, last 365 days 59th, European club minutes 30th93rdGoals28thAssists32ndMinutes43rdStarts59thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.30 this player0.08 midfielder median93rd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€500k
Feb 2022
Peak
€10M
May 2026
Model target
€10M
May 2026
Valuations
13
2 club changes
May 2026€10MFC AugsburgValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €10M, FC Augsburg. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-02-04€500kHertha BSC
2022-06-09€750kHertha BSC
2022-11-10€750kFC Basel 1893
2023-03-28€1MFC Basel 1893
2023-06-07€1MFC Basel 1893
2023-10-19€900kFC Basel 1893
2023-12-21€1.2MFC Basel 1893
2024-05-31€1.8MFC Basel 1893
2024-09-27€2MFC Basel 1893
2024-12-23€5MFC Basel 1893
2025-06-10€5MFC Basel 1893
2025-12-19€7.5MFC Augsburg
2026-05-27€10MFC Augsburg

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.084

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 65% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 78% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Kade appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).