Lewis
Neilson
CBScotland · Falkirk FC
Player dossierPremiership
LewisNeilson
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- Falkirk FC
- League
- Premiership
- Nationality
- Scotland
- Age
- 23
- Height
- 184 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 20 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Neilson at €600k. Model A, which never saw Neilson during training, estimates €331k: the market value is 81% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.81. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 39
- Minutes
- 2,826
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 29/39
- Min / app
- 72
- Cards
- 3Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Neilson…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €600k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Minutes, two years
Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.
2,826 this player2,860 defender median49th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €250k
- Jan 2021
- Peak
- €700k
- Dec 2024
- Model target
- €600k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 12
- 5 club changes
May 2026: €600k, Falkirk FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-01-18 | €250k | Dundee United FC |
| 2021-06-28 | €250k | Dundee United FC |
| 2021-12-31 | €250k | Dundee United FC |
| 2022-06-27 | €250k | Dundee United FC |
| 2022-12-13 | €375k | Heart of Midlothian FC |
| 2023-06-26 | €375k | Heart of Midlothian FC |
| 2023-12-05 | €450k | Partick Thistle FC |
| 2024-10-02 | €500k | St. Johnstone FC |
| 2024-12-03 | €700k | St. Johnstone FC |
| 2025-06-17 | €700k | Heart of Midlothian FC |
| 2025-12-10 | €700k | Falkirk FC |
| 2026-05-20 | €600k | Falkirk FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.594
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premiership311 players · median €400k
Valued above 63% of the 311 Premiership players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 22% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Neilson appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- MillerLMFalkirk FC · Premiership€600k
- SpittalCMHeart of Midlothian FC · Premiership€600k
- CaddenLMHibernian FC · Premiership€600k
- KnoesterCBAberdeen FC · Premiership€600k
- SilvestriRBBologna FC 1909 · defenders€600k
- JungCBSC Freiburg · defenders€600k
- TrimmelRB1.FC Union Berlin · defenders€600k
- BellCB1.FSV Mainz 05 · defenders€600k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).