Óscar
Aranda
LWSpain · FC Famalicão
Player dossierLiga Portugal
ÓscarAranda
LWLeft WingerAttack
- Club
- FC Famalicão
- League
- Liga Portugal
- Nationality
- Spain
- Age
- 24
- Height
- 181 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
Liga PortugalReading the valuation
The market values Aranda at €3M. Model A, which never saw Aranda during training, estimates €1.9M: the market value is 57% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.57. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.8M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 34
- Minutes
- 2,640
- Goals
- 9
- Assists
- 3
- Started
- 33/34
- Min / app
- 78
- Cards
- 5Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Aranda…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
97% this player59% attacker median99th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- Aug 2021
- Peak
- €4M
- Mar 2025
- Model target
- €3M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 14
- 1 club change
May 2026: €3M, FC Famalicão. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-08-12 | €100k | Real Madrid Castilla |
| 2021-10-13 | €500k | Real Madrid Castilla |
| 2021-12-30 | €500k | Real Madrid Castilla |
| 2022-06-29 | €500k | Real Madrid Castilla |
| 2022-12-29 | €400k | Real Madrid Castilla |
| 2023-06-30 | €400k | Real Madrid Castilla |
| 2023-12-27 | €500k | FC Famalicão |
| 2024-06-06 | €500k | FC Famalicão |
| 2024-10-08 | €1.5M | FC Famalicão |
| 2024-12-19 | €3M | FC Famalicão |
| 2025-03-31 | €4M | FC Famalicão |
| 2025-05-30 | €4M | FC Famalicão |
| 2025-12-18 | €4M | FC Famalicão |
| 2026-05-28 | €3M | FC Famalicão |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.453
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M
Valued above 67% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 52% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Aranda appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- BrumaLWSL Benfica · Liga Portugal€3M
- SantosLBSporting CP · Liga Portugal€3M
- FerreiraDMCD Santa Clara · Liga Portugal€3M
- SánchezRBGD Estoril Praia · Liga Portugal€3M
- WelbeckCFBrighton & Hove Albion · attackers€3M
- SterlingRWFeyenoord Rotterdam · attackers€3M
- SilvaCFElche CF · attackers€3M
- JiménezCFFulham FC · attackers€3M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).