FairValue

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Nathaniel

Adjei

CBGhana · FC Lorient

№ 646829Emerging €2.4M −0.45

Player dossierLigue 1

NathanielAdjei

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
FC Lorient
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
Ghana
Age
23
Height
191 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Adjei at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Adjei during training, estimates €2.4M: the market value is 36% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.57. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.5M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.45A €2.4M▼ 0.00B €1.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
15
Minutes
833
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
9/15
Min / app
56
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Adjei…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.5MModel A €2.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Nathaniel Adjei's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 8th, Starts 15th, Minutes, last 365 days 23rd, European club minutes 30th18thGoals17thAssists8thMinutes15thStarts23rdRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% defender median30th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Jan 2019
Peak
€2.5M
Mar 2024
Model target
€1.5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
14
2 club changes
Jun 2026€1.5MFC LorientValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.5M, FC Lorient. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-01-25€25kDanbort FC
2019-11-11€50kDanbort FC
2021-01-16€50kDanbort FC
2022-09-02€125kHammarby IF
2022-12-14€300kHammarby IF
2023-06-27€400kHammarby IF
2023-09-13€800kHammarby IF
2023-12-08€1.5MHammarby IF
2024-03-19€2.5MFC Lorient
2024-06-03€2.5MFC Lorient
2024-12-04€2MFC Lorient
2025-06-02€1.5MFC Lorient
2025-12-15€1.2MFC Lorient
2026-06-01€1.5MFC Lorient

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.449

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 13% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 43% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Adjei appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).