FairValue

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Abner

LBBrazil · Olympique Lyon

№ 646402Elite €17.5M −0.56

Player dossierLigue 1

Abner

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Olympique Lyon
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
Brazil
Age
26
Height
181 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Abner at €10M. Model A, which never saw Abner during training, estimates €17.5M: the market value is 43% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.75. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €9.2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.56A €17.5M▲ +0.08B €9.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
58
Minutes
3,990
Goals
6
Assists
4
Started
46/58
Min / app
69
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Abner…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €17.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Abner's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 94th, Assists per 90 74th, Minutes, two years 69th, Starts 43rd, Minutes, last 365 days 77th, European club minutes 83rd94thGoals74thAssists69thMinutes43rdStarts77thRecent83rdEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.14 this player0.03 defender median94th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€1M
Aug 2019
Peak
€10M
Mar 2026
Model target
€10M
Jun 2026
Valuations
18
2 club changes
Jun 2026€10MOlympique LyonValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €10M, Olympique Lyon. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-08-15€1MClub Athletico Paranaense
2019-11-27€1MClub Athletico Paranaense
2020-04-08€900kClub Athletico Paranaense
2020-09-09€4MClub Athletico Paranaense
2021-02-09€6MClub Athletico Paranaense
2021-05-28€7.5MClub Athletico Paranaense
2021-12-17€7.5MClub Athletico Paranaense
2022-04-06€7.5MClub Athletico Paranaense
2022-08-19€8MClub Athletico Paranaense
2022-11-14€8MClub Athletico Paranaense
2023-06-13€7MReal Betis Balompié
2023-12-22€7MReal Betis Balompié
2024-06-07€7MReal Betis Balompié
2024-12-10€9MOlympique Lyon
2025-06-03€7MOlympique Lyon
2025-12-15€7MOlympique Lyon
2026-03-27€10MOlympique Lyon
2026-06-01€10MOlympique Lyon

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.561

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 66% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 81% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Abner appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).