YannickThoelen

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club: Royal Antwerp FC
League: Pro League
Nationality: Belgium
Age: 35
Height: 188 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Thoelen at €200k. Model A, which never saw Thoelen during training, estimates €74k: the market value is 172% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.72. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €122k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 7
Minutes: 496
Started: 5/7
Min / app: 71
Cards: 0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Thoelen…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €200k

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% goalkeeper median32nd percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●86%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €100k; Aug 2008
Peak: €650k; Dec 2019
Model target: €200k; Jun 2026
Valuations: 30; 4 club changes

Jun 2026€200kRoyal Antwerp FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €200k, Royal Antwerp FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2008-08-21	€100k	KV Mechelen
2011-01-10	€100k	KV Mechelen
2011-12-02	€150k	Lommel United
2012-02-05	€200k	Lommel United
2012-06-24	€300k	Lommel United
2014-10-09	€300k	Lommel United
2015-05-16	€400k	Lommel United
2016-02-07	€400k	KAA Gent
2016-07-15	€350k	KAA Gent
2017-01-21	€500k	KAA Gent
2017-06-06	€500k	KAA Gent
2018-01-09	€500k	KAA Gent
2018-06-03	€500k	KAA Gent
2018-12-27	€500k	KAA Gent
2019-06-10	€500k	KAA Gent
2019-12-13	€650k	KV Mechelen
2020-04-08	€525k	KV Mechelen
2020-10-16	€500k	KV Mechelen
2021-06-07	€600k	KV Mechelen
2021-10-06	€500k	KV Mechelen
2022-01-06	€400k	KV Mechelen
2022-04-12	€400k	KV Mechelen
2022-11-04	€300k	KV Mechelen
2023-06-09	€250k	KV Mechelen
2023-12-19	€200k	KV Mechelen
2024-06-04	€200k	KV Mechelen
2024-12-11	€200k	KV Mechelen
2025-06-12	€200k	Royal Antwerp FC
2025-12-10	€200k	Royal Antwerp FC
2026-06-04	€200k	Royal Antwerp FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: +1.000

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 1% of the 350 Pro League players.

See them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 9% of the 485 goalkeepers.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Thoelen appears

TerminalPro League in the Player Explorer
TerminalPro League on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).