FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Rhaldney

CMBrazil · FC Alverca

№ 638269Emerging €1.5M −0.39

Player dossierLiga Portugal

Rhaldney

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
FC Alverca
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Brazil
Age
27
Height
184 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Rhaldney at €1M. Model A, which never saw Rhaldney during training, estimates €1.5M: the market value is 33% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.48. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.39A €1.5M▼ −0.45B €1.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
32
Minutes
2,082
Goals
2
Assists
1
Started
24/32
Min / app
65
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Rhaldney…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €1.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Rhaldney's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 51st, Assists per 90 25th, Minutes, two years 39th, Starts 61st, Minutes, last 365 days 67th, European club minutes 30th51stGoals25thAssists39thMinutes61stStarts67thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,082 this player1,541 midfielder median67th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,800

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€600k
Aug 2021
Peak
€1M
Oct 2025
Model target
€1M
May 2026
Valuations
12
3 club changes
May 2026€1MFC AlvercaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1M, FC Alverca. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-08-12€600kClube Náutico Capibaribe
2022-08-05€600kAtlético Clube Goianiense
2022-11-14€600kAtlético Clube Goianiense
2023-07-18€600kAtlético Clube Goianiense
2023-11-27€600kAtlético Clube Goianiense
2024-03-28€600kAtlético Clube Goianiense
2024-06-17€600kAtlético Clube Goianiense
2024-12-09€600kAtlético Clube Goianiense
2025-06-27€600kAtlético Clube Goianiense
2025-10-01€1MGöztepe
2025-12-17€1MGöztepe
2026-05-28€1MFC Alverca

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.395

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 42% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 32% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Rhaldney appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).