FairValue

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Raúl

García

CFSpain · CA Osasuna

№ 631002Established €10.9M −1.29

Player dossierLaLiga

RaúlGarcía

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
CA Osasuna
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
25
Height
192 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values García at €3M. Model A, which never saw García during training, estimates €10.9M: the market value is 73% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×3.65. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €16.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −1.29A €10.9M▼ −1.68B €16.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
76
Minutes
2,315
Goals
21
Assists
3
Started
17/76
Min / app
30
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for García…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €10.9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Raúl García's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 99th, Assists per 90 38th, Minutes, two years 52nd, Starts 5th, Minutes, last 365 days 54th, European club minutes 28th99thGoals38thAssists52ndMinutes5thStarts54thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.82 this player0.26 attacker median99th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Oct 2020
Peak
€4M
Jun 2023
Model target
€3M
Jun 2026
Valuations
17
2 club changes
Jun 2026€3MCA OsasunaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €3M, CA Osasuna. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-10-08€50kBetis Deportivo Balompié
2021-01-08€100kBetis Deportivo Balompié
2021-03-19€500kBetis Deportivo Balompié
2021-06-30€500kBetis Deportivo Balompié
2021-12-30€500kBetis Deportivo Balompié
2022-06-29€500kBetis Deportivo Balompié
2022-09-26€800kCD Mirandés
2022-12-29€1.5MCD Mirandés
2023-03-24€2MCD Mirandés
2023-06-14€4MCD Mirandés
2023-10-13€3MCA Osasuna
2023-12-22€3MCA Osasuna
2024-06-07€4MCA Osasuna
2024-12-27€3.5MCA Osasuna
2025-06-09€3MCA Osasuna
2025-12-12€3MCA Osasuna
2026-06-05€3MCA Osasuna

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−1.293

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 40% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 52% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where García appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).