FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Carlos

Rojas

RWSpain · Epicentr Kamyanets-Podilskyi

№ 628473Emerging €556k −0.80

Player dossierPremier Liha

CarlosRojas

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Epicentr Kamyanets-Podilskyi
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Spain
Age
24
Height
176 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Rojas at €250k. Model A, which never saw Rojas during training, estimates €556k: the market value is 55% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.23. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.80A €556k▼ −1.62B €1.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
11
Minutes
839
Goals
3
Assists
2
Started
11/11
Min / app
76
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Rojas…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €250k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €250kModel A €556k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Carlos Rojas's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 61st, Assists per 90 74th, Minutes, two years 14th, Starts 100th, Minutes, last 365 days 31st, European club minutes 28th61stGoals74thAssists14thMinutes100thStarts31stRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player59% attacker median100th percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Nov 2020
Peak
€250k
Mar 2026
Model target
€250k
Jun 2026
Valuations
11
3 club changes
Jun 2026€250kEpicentr Kamyanets-PodilskyiValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €250k, Epicentr Kamyanets-Podilskyi. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-11-03€100kAtlético Madrid U19
2023-08-21€50kReal Murcia CF
2023-10-13€100kReal Murcia CF
2023-12-20€100kReal Murcia CF
2024-06-24€100kReal Murcia CF
2024-10-14€150kReal Murcia CF
2024-12-18€150kReal Murcia CF
2025-06-25€150kReal Murcia CF
2025-12-30€150kHércules CF
2026-03-23€250kEpicentr Kamyanets-Podilskyi
2026-06-02€250kEpicentr Kamyanets-Podilskyi

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.800

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 17% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 6% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Rojas appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).