FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Giannis

Konstantelias

AMGreece · PAOK Thessaloniki

№ 628331Elite €11.7M +0.63

Player dossierSuper League

GiannisKonstantelias

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
PAOK Thessaloniki
League
Super League
Nationality
Greece
Age
23
Height
178 cm
Foot
Both
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Konstantelias at €22M. Model A, which never saw Konstantelias during training, estimates €11.7M: the market value is 88% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.88. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €20M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.63A €11.7M▲ +0.10B €20M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
75
Minutes
5,193
Goals
20
Assists
9
Started
56/75
Min / app
69
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Konstantelias…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €22M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €22MModel A €11.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Giannis Konstantelias's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 96th, Assists per 90 73rd, Minutes, two years 88th, Starts 60th, Minutes, last 365 days 75th, European club minutes 98th96thGoals73rdAssists88thMinutes60thStarts75thRecent98thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

36% this player0% midfielder median98th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
May 2021
Peak
€22M
Jun 2026
Model target
€22M
Jun 2026
Valuations
15
2 club changes
Jun 2026€22MPAOK ThessalonikiValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €22M, PAOK Thessaloniki. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-05-30€150kPAOK Thessaloniki
2021-11-01€400kPAOK Thessaloniki
2022-04-12€400kKAS Eupen
2022-11-07€400kPAOK Thessaloniki
2023-02-27€4MPAOK Thessaloniki
2023-05-22€6MPAOK Thessaloniki
2023-09-21€8MPAOK Thessaloniki
2023-12-20€10MPAOK Thessaloniki
2024-03-06€12MPAOK Thessaloniki
2024-05-30€15MPAOK Thessaloniki
2024-09-26€17MPAOK Thessaloniki
2024-12-18€17MPAOK Thessaloniki
2025-05-23€17MPAOK Thessaloniki
2025-12-12€20MPAOK Thessaloniki
2026-06-04€22MPAOK Thessaloniki

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.633

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

2nd highest observed value among 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€22MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 90% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€22MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Konstantelias appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).