FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Ken

Nkuba

RBBelgium · KRC Genk

№ 627939Emerging €1.2M +0.26

Player dossierPro League

KenNkuba

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
KRC Genk
League
Pro League
Nationality
Belgium
Age
24
Height
179 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Nkuba at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Nkuba during training, estimates €1.2M: the market value is 30% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.30. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.26A €1.2M▼ −0.61B €2.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
36
Minutes
1,316
Goals
1
Assists
1
Started
14/36
Min / app
37
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Nkuba…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.5MModel A €1.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Ken Nkuba's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 74th, Assists per 90 66th, Minutes, two years 19th, Starts 2nd, Minutes, last 365 days 24th, European club minutes 91st74thGoals66thAssists19thMinutes2ndStarts24thRecent91stEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

26% this player0% defender median91st percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Jul 2019
Peak
€4M
Jun 2023
Model target
€1.5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
18
1 club change
Jun 2026€1.5MKRC GenkValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.5M, KRC Genk. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-07-23€150kRoyal Charleroi SC
2019-12-13€150kRoyal Charleroi SC
2020-10-16€300kRoyal Charleroi SC
2021-06-07€300kRoyal Charleroi SC
2022-01-06€300kRoyal Charleroi SC
2022-04-12€300kRoyal Charleroi SC
2022-05-26€700kRoyal Charleroi SC
2022-09-07€2.5MRoyal Charleroi SC
2022-11-04€3.5MRoyal Charleroi SC
2023-06-09€4MRoyal Charleroi SC
2023-12-19€3.5MRoyal Charleroi SC
2024-06-04€3.5MKRC Genk
2024-12-11€3MKRC Genk
2025-06-12€2.7MKRC Genk
2025-10-01€2.2MKRC Genk
2025-12-10€2.5MKRC Genk
2026-03-13€2MKRC Genk
2026-06-04€1.5MKRC Genk

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.262

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 39% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 43% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Nkuba appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).