Lucas
Gourna-Douath
DMFrance · Le Havre AC
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierLigue 1
LucasGourna-Douath
DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Le Havre AC
- League
- Ligue 1
- Nationality
- France
- Age
- 22
- Height
- 185 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 1 Jun 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Gourna-Douath at €6M. Model A, which never saw Gourna-Douath during training, estimates €4.8M: the market value is 25% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.25. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 32
- Minutes
- 2,004
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 23/32
- Min / app
- 63
- Cards
- 12Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Gourna-Douath…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €6M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
25% this player0% midfielder median91st percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €1.5M
- Aug 2020
- Peak
- €12M
- Apr 2021
- Model target
- €6M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 17
- 4 club changes
Jun 2026: €6M, Le Havre AC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-08-01 | €1.5M | AS Saint-Étienne |
| 2020-10-15 | €2M | AS Saint-Étienne |
| 2021-01-07 | €4M | AS Saint-Étienne |
| 2021-04-09 | €12M | AS Saint-Étienne |
| 2021-06-04 | €12M | AS Saint-Étienne |
| 2021-12-16 | €10M | AS Saint-Étienne |
| 2022-05-30 | €10M | AS Saint-Étienne |
| 2022-11-10 | €12M | Red Bull Salzburg |
| 2023-06-12 | €12M | Red Bull Salzburg |
| 2023-12-11 | €12M | Red Bull Salzburg |
| 2024-05-21 | €9M | Red Bull Salzburg |
| 2024-12-17 | €8M | Red Bull Salzburg |
| 2025-06-17 | €8M | AS Roma |
| 2025-09-22 | €6M | Red Bull Salzburg |
| 2025-12-22 | €4M | Red Bull Salzburg |
| 2026-03-27 | €6M | Le Havre AC |
| 2026-06-01 | €6M | Le Havre AC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.219
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Ligue 1423 players · median €5M
Valued above 50% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 69% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Gourna-Douath appears
- TerminalLigue 1 in the Player Explorer
- TerminalLigue 1 on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- RulliGKOlympique Marseille · Ligue 1€6M
- FrankowskiRBStade Rennais FC · Ligue 1€6M
- MakengoAMFC Lorient · Ligue 1€6M
- NamasoLWAJ Auxerre · Ligue 1€6M
- CasemiroDMManchester United · midfielders€6M
- SabitzerCMBorussia Dortmund · midfielders€6M
- AndrichDMBayer 04 Leverkusen · midfielders€6M
- PašalićCMAtalanta BC · midfielders€6M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).